# Underwriting AI data centres through the cycle > If AI capital expenditure corrects, which facilities retain their value? Lessons from building three data centre platforms: diversified demand, scarce power, durable layers and disciplined commitments. URL: https://www.qoreinfra.com/insights/ai-infrastructure-in-a-downturn/ Publisher: Qore Infrastructure Partners (https://www.qoreinfra.com) Author: Christof Hämmerli Published: 2026-10-25 --- Market If AI capital expenditure corrects, which facilities retain their value? Lessons from building three data centre platforms: diversified demand, scarce power, durable layers and disciplined commitments. By **Christof Hämmerli**25 October 20266 min read ## Key points * Data centre demand is not one market; cloud, enterprise and inference demand persist through an AI training slowdown. * Confirmed power before 2030 remains scarce irrespective of any single tenant. * Owning land, power and building rather than accelerators places capital on the durable side of the stack. At the peak of every infrastructure cycle the same question is asked: what happens if it turns? With AI capital expenditure at record levels, it is a question every serious counterparty raises, and one that should be answered in the underwriting rather than after it. Having built data centre platforms from inception to institutional scale three times, I have found that the facilities which kept their value through difficult markets shared characteristics. None depended on a single technology thesis being right. ## Demand is several markets AI training is the most visible demand, but it sits on a large and steadily growing base of cloud, streaming, financial services and enterprise workloads, and a faster-growing layer of inference that runs continuously once models are deployed. ECB President Christine Lagarde observed in September 2026 that Europe already has too little data centre capacity for its own needs before AI growth is counted. A slowdown in training spend would not remove that shortage. ## Scarcity is in power, not in buildings In Europe, the constraint on new capacity is grid connection, with queues in the main hubs averaging seven to ten years according to the IEA. A facility with confirmed power, energised before 2030, remains scarce regardless of any individual tenant's plans. If a tenant's requirements change, a powered, zoned and built facility can be re-let to another cloud provider, AI lab or enterprise. A project whose power is still prospective cannot. ## Own the durable layers Accelerators depreciate within a few years; land, power connections, buildings and cooling infrastructure serve decades and several hardware generations. The platform's model is deliberately on the durable side of that line: customers own the compute, Qore owns the infrastructure. ## Flexibility and headroom A facility designed for one tenant's proprietary layout and one hardware generation is fragile. One with headroom in power and cooling, designed for liquid cooling, divisible into phases and re-lettable across customer types, is resilient. Modular delivery reinforces this by adding capacity as demand is confirmed rather than in a single speculative block. ## Commitments that follow certainty Finally, discipline in commitments: pre-letting before building, and acquisition payments staged to confirmed power milestones. This does not eliminate risk, but it ensures the largest commitments follow certainty rather than precede it. A correction would test business models built on speculative capacity, single tenants, unconfirmed power and short-lived assets. It would be considerably kinder to infrastructure that is power-secured, well located, flexible and owned for the long term. That is the infrastructure Europe is short of, and the infrastructure this platform is built to own. ## Sources 1. [Lagarde warns EU data centre gap could reach 19GW by 2036](https://datacentrereview.com/2026/09/lagarde-warns-eu-data-centre-gap-could-reach-19gw-by-2036/), Data Centre Review, September 2026 2. [Overcoming energy constraints is key to delivering on Europe's data centre goals](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/overcoming-energy-constraints-is-key-to-delivering-on-europe-s-data-centre-goals), International Energy Agency, November 2025 3. [AI is set to drive surging electricity demand from data centres](https://www.iea.org/news/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electricity-demand-from-data-centres-while-offering-the-potential-to-transform-how-the-energy-sector-works), International Energy Agency, April 2025 Figures are as reported by the sources above at the time of writing. This article is for general information only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice. **Christof Hämmerli** Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Qore Infrastructure Partners. [Profile](https://www.qoreinfra.com/platform/leadership/#christof-haemmerli) ## Related * [Development strategy](https://www.qoreinfra.com/platform/strategy/) * [Speed to power as the decisive asset](https://www.qoreinfra.com/insights/power-not-land-decides-europes-ai-map/) * [Delivery models](https://www.qoreinfra.com/delivery/delivery-models/) [Contact the team](https://www.qoreinfra.com/contact/) Insights ## Further perspectives [Sovereign AI ### Building Europe's Sovereign AI Infrastructure Europe's AI ambitions will be decided by who controls the facilities, power and supply chains beneath the models. A perspective on what it will take, and how the platform is built to deliver it.](https://www.qoreinfra.com/insights/building-europes-sovereign-ai-infrastructure/)[Market ### Speed to power is now the decisive asset in European data centres With connection queues in Europe's traditional hubs at seven to ten years, the market's scarce input is no longer land or capital but confirmed power before 2030. Implications for origination, valuation and customers.](https://www.qoreinfra.com/insights/power-not-land-decides-europes-ai-map/)[Development ### Underwriting powered land: five tests of readiness Powered land has become a marketing term. For underwriting purposes it is a set of verifiable conditions. The framework we apply before any facility enters the platform.](https://www.qoreinfra.com/insights/what-makes-powered-land-ready/) --- About the publisher: Qore Infrastructure Partners (QIP) is Europe's power-ready hyperscale and AI data centre platform, headquartered in Zug, Switzerland: Building Europe's Sovereign AI Infrastructure. Website: https://www.qoreinfra.com. Not affiliated with Gcore, QORE Switzerland AG, QORE Global, QORE Finance or Qore (core banking). Nothing on this site is an offer of securities or investment advice.